Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, May 10
A prevailing western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir has moved away eastwards only to light up east and north-east India in fresh weather activity.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of thunder squalls at some places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, the north-eastern States, Orissa and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.
MOISTURE INCURSION
The IMD blamed this on incursion of moisture taking place in the region under the influence of the strong south-westerly to south-south-westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal.
A supportive but constantly shifting north-south trough on Monday ran down from Bihar to north Orissa across Jharkhand.
Another north-south trough tracked from Marathwada down to the south Tamil Nadu coast across Karnataka and Kerala.
Meanwhile, at least two US-based forecasting models saw weather activity peaking over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean and south-west Bay of Bengal during May 18 to 26.
MJO PHASE
This is despite the forecast of a dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave intervening, according to the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the National Weather Services.
This has led a few experts here to wonder if this would go to precipitate the onset of the southwest monsoon, since only it has the residual strength to keep the activity going even in the presence of a ‘dry phase' of the MJO.
The current ‘wet' (and alternating) phase of the MJO wave would last until around May 19, which would afford the monsoon system sufficient fuel to fire away on its own strength, these experts feel.
Experimental Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the IMD too sees activity building around extreme southwest peninsula from around May 17.
FRESH WESTERLY
A fresh western disturbance was awaiting its turn over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir to move further east into the west Himalayas.
It has induced the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan.
The fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayas during the next four days.
Satellite imagery on Monday morning showed the presence of convective (rain- or thundershower-causing) clouds over Jammu and Kashmir in the north and Manipur and Mizoram in the northeast.
Low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) were seen over east Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, remaining parts of western Himalayas and the Northeastern States.
Towards the south, convective clouds rose high over Lakshadweep, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and southeast Arabian Sea.
Low to medium clouds were seen over Konkan, Goa, south Andaman Sea, remaining parts of western Himalayas, the Northeastern states and south peninsular India.
Forecasts valid until Thursday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh and scattered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
They will be scattered over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms may occur over Punjab and west Rajasthan during the next 24 hours.
Isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during the next two days while they would be scattered over Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are likely to witness isolated thundershowers.
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed over some parts of Vidarbha, Telangana and Marathwada and isolated pockets of Gujarat and Orissa.
The highest maximum temperature of 46.1 deg Celsius was recorded at Chandrapur in Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
Thiruvananthapuram, May 10
A prevailing western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir has moved away eastwards only to light up east and north-east India in fresh weather activity.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of thunder squalls at some places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, the north-eastern States, Orissa and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.
MOISTURE INCURSION
The IMD blamed this on incursion of moisture taking place in the region under the influence of the strong south-westerly to south-south-westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal.
A supportive but constantly shifting north-south trough on Monday ran down from Bihar to north Orissa across Jharkhand.
Another north-south trough tracked from Marathwada down to the south Tamil Nadu coast across Karnataka and Kerala.
Meanwhile, at least two US-based forecasting models saw weather activity peaking over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean and south-west Bay of Bengal during May 18 to 26.
MJO PHASE
This is despite the forecast of a dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave intervening, according to the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the National Weather Services.
This has led a few experts here to wonder if this would go to precipitate the onset of the southwest monsoon, since only it has the residual strength to keep the activity going even in the presence of a ‘dry phase' of the MJO.
The current ‘wet' (and alternating) phase of the MJO wave would last until around May 19, which would afford the monsoon system sufficient fuel to fire away on its own strength, these experts feel.
Experimental Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the IMD too sees activity building around extreme southwest peninsula from around May 17.
FRESH WESTERLY
A fresh western disturbance was awaiting its turn over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir to move further east into the west Himalayas.
It has induced the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan.
The fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayas during the next four days.
Satellite imagery on Monday morning showed the presence of convective (rain- or thundershower-causing) clouds over Jammu and Kashmir in the north and Manipur and Mizoram in the northeast.
Low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) were seen over east Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, remaining parts of western Himalayas and the Northeastern States.
Towards the south, convective clouds rose high over Lakshadweep, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and southeast Arabian Sea.
Low to medium clouds were seen over Konkan, Goa, south Andaman Sea, remaining parts of western Himalayas, the Northeastern states and south peninsular India.
Forecasts valid until Thursday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh and scattered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
They will be scattered over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms may occur over Punjab and west Rajasthan during the next 24 hours.
Isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during the next two days while they would be scattered over Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are likely to witness isolated thundershowers.
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed over some parts of Vidarbha, Telangana and Marathwada and isolated pockets of Gujarat and Orissa.
The highest maximum temperature of 46.1 deg Celsius was recorded at Chandrapur in Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
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